There’s a strange quietness in college football these days when it comes to underdogs. Remember the thrill of an FCS team pulling off an upset against a Power Five giant? It feels like a relic now, a story that’s been buried under the weight of modern football’s financial and logistical machinery. The last time an FCS team shocked a Power Four opponent was over two years ago, and since then, the gap between the tiers has widened so drastically that even the most optimistic fans are whispering: Has this become impossible? Let’s unpack why the era of FCS upsets might be fading—and what that says about the soul of the sport.
The Death of the Cinderella Story
College football used to live and die by its underdog moments. A scrappy FCS team pulling off a miracle win wasn’t just a feel-good story; it was a reminder that talent, heart, and a little luck could defy the odds. But today? The odds are stacked in favor of the elite. Power conference teams have won 125 straight games against FCS opponents, a streak that feels less like a record and more like a declaration of dominance. The numbers don’t lie: since the NIL era began in 2022, Power Four teams are 223-2 against FCS foes. That’s a .991 winning percentage. Compare that to the pre-NIL era (2006-2021), when they were still dominant but not this dominant (.952). The difference? Money. Transfer portals. And a system that rewards the top programs with resources the rest can’t match.
What makes this particularly fascinating is how it reflects a deeper shift in college athletics. The transfer portal isn’t just a tool for players to find better opportunities—it’s a weapon for the Power Five. FCS programs, already underfunded, can’t compete with the financial incentives of Power Five schools. Players leave for better facilities, higher scholarships, and the chance to play in bigger stadiums. It’s a cycle that’s accelerating: the best players leave, the teams lose momentum, and the cycle repeats. The result? FCS teams are no longer just underdogs—they’re relics of a bygone era.
The Games That Could Break the Streak
Still, there are whispers of hope. Six matchups in 2026 could be the catalysts for ending this 125-game streak. Let’s take a closer look at why these games matter—and what they reveal about the sport’s current state.
South Dakota State vs. Northwestern: South Dakota State is a team with pedigree. Two back-to-back FCS national championships under its belt, and a quarterback returning from injury. Northwestern’s coach knows this team well—he once coached them. But the Wildcats have a history of being vulnerable. Three FCS upsets in their history, including losses to New Hampshire and Southern Illinois. If South Dakota State can harness its talent and confidence, this could be the game that cracks the dam.
Youngstown State vs. Kentucky: Youngstown State’s quarterback, Beau Brungard, is a Walter Payton Award winner—FCS’s version of the Heisman. He’s a dual-threat magician who can shred defenses. Kentucky has talent, but first-year head coaches often struggle to integrate new systems. If Brungard can exploit mismatches, this game could be a wake-up call for the SEC.
North Dakota vs. Nebraska: North Dakota’s quarterback, Jerry Kaminski, is a dual-threat nightmare. He’s backed by a defense led by Lance Rucker, an All-American edge rusher from Omaha. Nebraska hasn’t lost to an FCS team since 2022, but Matt Rhule’s program is still finding its footing. If Kaminski and Rucker can disrupt Nebraska’s rhythm, this could be a statement game for the Fighting Hawks.
Tennessee Tech vs. Mississippi State: Tennessee Tech went 11-2 in 2025, and their coach has loaded up on transfers. Mississippi State, meanwhile, is entering Year 3 under Jeff Lebby. If the Bulldogs are overconfident or underprepared, Tennessee Tech’s explosive offense could expose cracks in their defense.
Austin Peay vs. Vanderbilt: Austin Peay’s quarterback, Chris Parson, is a former Mississippi State standout who finished second in the Walter Payton Award race. Vanderbilt is without its star QB, Diego Pavia, and is expected to take a step back. If Parson can replicate his 2025 performance, this could be a devastating upset for a program that’s still healing from its 2022 humiliation.
Monmouth vs. West Virginia: Monmouth has a habit of giving Group of Five teams fits. West Virginia, under Rich Rodriguez, has a brand-new roster. The uncertainty of a rebuilt team could be their downfall. If Monmouth’s offense can exploit West Virginia’s inexperience, this game could be a turning point.
The Bigger Picture: What This Says About College Football
These potential upsets aren’t just about the games themselves—they’re about the state of college football as a whole. The widening gap between tiers isn’t just a statistical anomaly; it’s a reflection of systemic inequities. The Power Five schools have the money, the media attention, and the infrastructure to dominate. FCS programs, meanwhile, are trapped in a cycle of attrition, constantly losing their best players to higher-profile programs.
This raises a deeper question: Is college football becoming too predictable? The thrill of the underdog is one of the sport’s greatest attractions. Without it, games risk becoming just another spectacle of elite talent, devoid of the narrative magic that made us fall in love with the sport. What this really suggests is that the NCAA needs to rethink its structure. Maybe it’s time to create more pathways for FCS teams to rise without sacrificing their identity. Or perhaps we need to embrace the reality that the old days are gone, and the new era demands a different kind of storytelling.
In the end, the 2026 season could be a pivotal moment. If an FCS team pulls off an upset, it might not just be a game—it could be a symbol of resistance against the forces reshaping college football. If not, we’ll have to accept that the Cinderella story is no longer part of the script. And that’s a loss for the sport, no matter how many highlights it generates.
